Trump takes the lead

Source NY Post: In the latest poll released on Monday, it is evident that former President Donald Trump continues to hold a commanding lead in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. With an astonishing 37 percentage-point lead over his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Trump remains the undisputed frontrunner.

According to the New York Times/Siena College survey, Trump, at the age of 77, garnered an impressive 54% support among likely GOP primary voters nationwide. In contrast, DeSantis received 17% support, a significant gap between the two candidates. Other Republican contenders failed to gain substantial traction, with former Vice President Mike Pence, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and Senator Tim Scott each receiving only 3% support.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie trailed behind with 2% support. The remaining candidates failed to reach even 1% support, while 13% of respondents remained undecided.

The poll also revealed Trump’s dominance over DeSantis in key Republican constituencies. Among potential GOP primary voters aged 65 and older, Trump led DeSantis by a staggering 60% to 9%. Additionally, Trump held a commanding lead of 62% to 13% among white voters without a college degree.

Even self-described independents favored Trump over DeSantis by a significant margin of 28 percentage points (45% to 17%). Respondents who identified as “very conservative” overwhelmingly backed the former president, with a 50 percentage-point lead over DeSantis (65% to 15%).

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Trump doubled DeSantis, with 62% of respondents preferring the 45th president compared to 31% who supported the challenger.

Despite the DeSantis camp’s claim that the Florida governor is more electable than Trump, the poll results indicate that Republican voters feel differently. A majority of potential GOP primary voters (58%) believed that Trump was either “a lot” or “somewhat” more capable of defeating President Biden in the upcoming election, while only 28% held the same belief about DeSantis. Furthermore, 69% of respondents viewed Trump as a “strong leader,” while only 22% attributed that phrase to DeSantis.

One potential silver lining for the DeSantis camp is that 55% of primary voters who have not yet backed Trump stated that they had ruled out supporting the former president. Conversely, 46% of Trump’s supporters said they were open to considering other candidates.

The poll’s findings closely align with the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with 54.0% support nationwide, followed by DeSantis at 18.3%. Ramaswamy (4.9%), Pence (4.3%), and Haley (3.5%) round out the top five contenders.

During a rally in Erie, Pa., on Saturday, Trump celebrated his commanding lead in the polls and called on his lower-polling Republican rivals to exit the race. He emphasized that any attacks on him by fellow Republicans would only benefit the Biden campaign.

The New York Times/Siena poll was conducted from July 23 to 27 among 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including 818 registered Republican voters. The margin of error among all registered voters was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, and among registered GOP voters, it was plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

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